While expectations for a significant breakthrough remain modest, observers are hopeful that both countries may agree to begin rolling back the steep tariffs currently in place. Such a move would provide relief to global financial markets and multinational companies reliant on U.S.-China trade flows.
Last month, President Donald Trump increased U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports to a cumulative 145 percent. In response, Beijing imposed retaliatory tariffs of 125 percent on American goods. The exceptionally high duties have, in effect, severely restricted bilateral trade, which totaled over \$660 billion in 2024.
In a social media post on Friday, President Trump hinted at a potential reduction, stating, “80 percent tariff seems right! Up to Scott,” referring to Secretary Bessent. The president’s comments suggest some willingness to soften his administration’s current tariff stance.
Sun Yun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center, noted that this will be the first direct engagement between Secretary Bessent and Vice Premier He. While she remains skeptical that the meeting will yield substantive results, she acknowledged that even a modest mutual tariff reduction would send a constructive signal. “It cannot just be words,” she said.
Since his return to the White House in January, President Trump has employed tariffs as a central tool of economic policy, including a broad 10 percent levy on imports from nearly all nations. However, the trade dispute with China remains the most contentious. A portion of the tariffs—20 percent—targets Beijing over its failure to curb the flow of fentanyl into the United States, while the remaining 125 percent stems from longstanding concerns over China’s industrial policy.
During Trump’s first term, the U.S. accused China of engaging in unfair trade practices to dominate emerging technologies, including quantum computing and autonomous vehicles. These practices included forced technology transfers, extensive subsidies to domestic firms, and alleged intellectual property theft. Although a “Phase One” trade agreement was signed in January 2020, addressing some of these issues, core disputes—particularly regarding subsidies—remain unresolved. China's failure to meet its purchasing commitments under the deal, largely due to COVID-19 disruptions, has reignited tensions.
In addition to the talks with China, Bessent and Greer will meet with Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter. The U.S. recently suspended a planned 31 percent tariff hike on Swiss imports, temporarily reducing the rate to 10 percent. However, the administration has left open the possibility of further increases.
The Swiss government, for its part, has adopted a cautious stance, noting that retaliatory measures could harm key domestic industries, including watchmaking, coffee, cheese, and chocolate. “An increase in trade tensions is not in Switzerland’s interests,” the government stated last week. It also confirmed that Swiss exports to the U.S. are currently subject to an additional 10 percent tariff, which will increase to 21 percent on Wednesday.
The United States is Switzerland’s second-largest trading partner, following the European Union. Trade in goods and services between the two nations has quadrupled over the past two decades. Notably, Switzerland abolished all industrial tariffs on January 1 of last year, allowing 99 percent of U.S. goods to enter duty-free.
As the Geneva meetings approach, the global economic community will be watching closely for any signs of progress that could stabilize one of the most consequential trade relationships in the world.
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